> Epistemics > Confidence and Calibration

Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF)

The firmness with which positions are held, against the evidence for them.

August 2026

1. [1] arghXiv:2608.02701

   A Note on the Standard of Evidence Appropriate to Extraordinary Claims

   Lionel Trask

   31 pages. Expanded from a note of four pages circulated in 2025. Subjects: Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF) (primary class); Verification and Provenance (epist.VER); Moves and Tactics (argu.MOV); Sourcing (epist.SRC)