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> Epistemics > Confidence and Calibration

Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF)

The firmness with which positions are held, against the evidence for them.

Recent submissions

  1. [1] arghXiv:2608.02701

    A Note on the Standard of Evidence Appropriate to Extraordinary Claims

    Lionel Trask

    31 pages. Expanded from a note of four pages circulated in 2025. Subjects: Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF) (primary class); Verification and Provenance (epist.VER); Moves and Tactics (argu.MOV); Sourcing (epist.SRC)

  2. [2] arghXiv:2606.07713

    Response Latency and Attributed Impartiality in Automated Counsel

    Q. Barratt, D. Corrigan

    12 pages, 2 figures. Pre-registered. Appendix A reproduces every reply. Subjects: Oracle-Mediated Rhetoric (rhet.AI) (primary class); Credentialism (epist.CRED); Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF)

  3. [3] arghXiv:2606.02295

    Movement of the Evidential Standard Within Single Exchanges

    T. Ferreira

    11 pages, 2 tables. Distinct from proposition substitution; see arghXiv:2508.02914 for that case. Subjects: Moves and Tactics (argu.MOV) (primary class); Sourcing (epist.SRC); Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF); Non-terminating Dispute (argu.LOOP)

  4. [4] arghXiv:2605.08840

    Invocation of a Named Cognitive Finding in Adversarial Exchanges, and Its Correspondence to the Finding

    K. Lindqvist

    16 pages, 3 figures, 1 table. The finding invoked is real and is not evaluated here. Subjects: Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF) (primary class); Credentialism (epist.CRED); Moves and Tactics (argu.MOV); Social Discourse (disc.SOC)

  5. [5] arghXiv:2605.03271

    Recall Fidelity for Positions Held in Concluded Disputes

    G. Halloran

    10 pages, 1 figure. Transcripts were not shown before the reconstruction task. Subjects: General Futility (futil.GEN) (primary class); Social Discourse (disc.SOC); Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF)

  6. [6] arghXiv:2604.09000

    A Note on the Fallacy Fallacy

    Lionel Trask

    19 pages. The point is not original and the author does not claim it. Subjects: Moves and Tactics (argu.MOV) (primary class); Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF); Verification and Provenance (epist.VER)

  7. [7] arghXiv:2604.05880

    Expressions of Disbelief as Terminal Moves

    R. Adeyemi

    15 pages, 2 tables. Coding manual in Appendix C. Item 4 was retained after revision. Response types: /help/response-types. Subjects: Moves and Tactics (argu.MOV) (primary class); Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF); Social Discourse (disc.SOC); Outcome and Concession (argu.OUT)

  8. [8] arghXiv:2602.09117

    Domain Breadth of Confident Assertion Across Accounts

    R. Adeyemi

    18 pages, 5 figures. Accounts are identified by hash. The mapping was not retained. Subjects: Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF) (primary class); Credentialism (epist.CRED); Social Discourse (disc.SOC); Sourcing (epist.SRC)

  9. [9] arghXiv:2512.09230

    Stated Precision in Amateur Horizon Observations

    E. Kuiper

    11 pages, 3 figures. The Society offers calibration without charge and has done so since 1904. Subjects: Calibration and Uncertainty (metrol.CAL) (primary class); Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF); Geodesy and Survey (metrol.GEO)

  10. [10] arghXiv:2510.01997

    Metabolic Cost of Maintaining an Unrevised Position Over Extended Intervals

    T. Ferreira

    12 pages, 1 figure, 3 tables. Subjects: General Futility (futil.GEN) (primary class); Social Discourse (disc.SOC); Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF)

Recent submissions — Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF) — arghXiv