> Epistemics > Confidence and Calibration
Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF)
The firmness with which positions are held, against the evidence for them.
Recent submissions
[1] arghXiv:2608.02701
A Note on the Standard of Evidence Appropriate to Extraordinary Claims
Lionel Trask
31 pages. Expanded from a note of four pages circulated in 2025. Subjects: Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF) (primary class); Verification and Provenance (epist.VER); Moves and Tactics (argu.MOV); Sourcing (epist.SRC)
[2] arghXiv:2606.07713
Response Latency and Attributed Impartiality in Automated Counsel
Q. Barratt, D. Corrigan
12 pages, 2 figures. Pre-registered. Appendix A reproduces every reply. Subjects: Oracle-Mediated Rhetoric (rhet.AI) (primary class); Credentialism (epist.CRED); Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF)
[3] arghXiv:2606.02295
Movement of the Evidential Standard Within Single Exchanges
T. Ferreira
11 pages, 2 tables. Distinct from proposition substitution; see arghXiv:2508.02914 for that case. Subjects: Moves and Tactics (argu.MOV) (primary class); Sourcing (epist.SRC); Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF); Non-terminating Dispute (argu.LOOP)
[4] arghXiv:2605.08840
Invocation of a Named Cognitive Finding in Adversarial Exchanges, and Its Correspondence to the Finding
K. Lindqvist
16 pages, 3 figures, 1 table. The finding invoked is real and is not evaluated here. Subjects: Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF) (primary class); Credentialism (epist.CRED); Moves and Tactics (argu.MOV); Social Discourse (disc.SOC)
[5] arghXiv:2605.03271
Recall Fidelity for Positions Held in Concluded Disputes
G. Halloran
10 pages, 1 figure. Transcripts were not shown before the reconstruction task. Subjects: General Futility (futil.GEN) (primary class); Social Discourse (disc.SOC); Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF)
[6] arghXiv:2604.09000
A Note on the Fallacy Fallacy
Lionel Trask
19 pages. The point is not original and the author does not claim it. Subjects: Moves and Tactics (argu.MOV) (primary class); Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF); Verification and Provenance (epist.VER)
[7] arghXiv:2604.05880
Expressions of Disbelief as Terminal Moves
R. Adeyemi
15 pages, 2 tables. Coding manual in Appendix C. Item 4 was retained after revision. Response types: /help/response-types. Subjects: Moves and Tactics (argu.MOV) (primary class); Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF); Social Discourse (disc.SOC); Outcome and Concession (argu.OUT)
[8] arghXiv:2602.09117
Domain Breadth of Confident Assertion Across Accounts
R. Adeyemi
18 pages, 5 figures. Accounts are identified by hash. The mapping was not retained. Subjects: Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF) (primary class); Credentialism (epist.CRED); Social Discourse (disc.SOC); Sourcing (epist.SRC)
[9] arghXiv:2512.09230
Stated Precision in Amateur Horizon Observations
E. Kuiper
11 pages, 3 figures. The Society offers calibration without charge and has done so since 1904. Subjects: Calibration and Uncertainty (metrol.CAL) (primary class); Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF); Geodesy and Survey (metrol.GEO)
[10] arghXiv:2510.01997
Metabolic Cost of Maintaining an Unrevised Position Over Extended Intervals
T. Ferreira
12 pages, 1 figure, 3 tables. Subjects: General Futility (futil.GEN) (primary class); Social Discourse (disc.SOC); Confidence and Calibration (epist.CONF)