> Metrology > Calibration and Uncertainty > arghXiv:2512.09230
Stated Precision in Amateur Horizon Observations
Abstract: We collected 402 horizon observations circulated in support of a conclusion, and compared the precision claimed for each with the precision obtainable from the equipment and conditions described. Claimed precision exceeded obtainable precision in 371 cases, by a median factor of 40. The commonest source of the discrepancy is the reporting of a quantity to the resolution of the instrument's readout rather than to its uncertainty, which is an ordinary error and is made in both directions in ordinary work. It is not made in both directions here: in 366 of the 371 the excess precision is in the direction of the conclusion the observation was circulated to support.